The endangered Florida Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium) is endemic to the Florida Keys, Florida, USA, with Big Pine Key (BPK) supporting most (approx 60%) of the population. Habitat loss and fragmentation have altered the amount of available habitat, creating areas of varying suitability; north BPK (NBPK) is believed to contain more optimal habitat than south BPK (SBPK), which is more developed and fragmented. We evaluated the source–sink dynamics of Key deer using a sex- and stage-structured, stochastic matrix model. Model results indicated that the NBPK population of Key deer was increasing (λ = 1.02), whereas the SBPK population was decreasing (λ = 0.87). Without dispersal from the north, the SBPK population has a 97% probability of falling below 25 individuals (quasi-extinction threshold) in the next 20 years. The higher risk to Key deer in SBPK can be explained by relative habitat-quality differences between the 2 areas. House density, amount of roads, number of fences, and amount of development were all greater in SBPK. Collectively, study results indicate that SBPK can be described as an ecological sink with a nonviable population supplemented by deer dispersal from NBPK (source). Care should be taken to preserve the source population and its habitat. Thus, we propose limiting future development in NBPK (high-quality source habitat). The US 1 highway corridor project has the potential to decrease Key deer mortality due to vehicle collisions, and we recommend that future management goals continue to address mortality factors on SBPK (low-quality sink habitat).